Federal Reserve policy has been a key driver of markets over the past few years. It’s not surprising to investors that changes in policy direction have resulted in market swings, most notably in 2022 when the Fed began to hike rates, and again last year when investors anticipated Fed rate cuts. So far in 2025, the Fed has kept policy rates unchanged despite investor concerns over tariffs, consumer sentiment, and a possible economic slowdown. Why is the Fed on hold and how does it affect long-term investors?
Perspectives on Consumer Pessimism and Economic Risk
Concerns over the economy have intensified, leading to a challenging investment environment. The S&P 500 briefly fell into correction territory recently (a decline of 10% or more), while the Nasdaq and major technology stocks have led the downturn. In times like these, it's important for investors to remember that market uncertainty is a normal part of investing. While downturns are never pleasant, history shows that those who stick to their financial plans are in a better position to achieve their long-term goals.
The Importance of Business Cycles in Financial Planning
When it comes to financial planning, it's important to recognize what we can and cannot control. We can control our own behavior, make thoughtful financial plans, and adjust our strategies as needed. However, we don't control the economic cycle, market movements, or policy decisions that impact the broader financial landscape. Recognizing this distinction allows us to focus on the aspects of our financial lives where our decisions truly matter.
Finding Perspective Amid Recession Fears
The stock market has stumbled with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declining year-to-date.1 While tariffs have garnered the most attention, investors are also concerned about mixed economic signals including weak consumer confidence, hotter inflation, government worker layoffs, and more. Some are now wondering if there will be a recession, and President Trump did not rule out the possibility in recent interviews. How can investors maintain perspective in this challenging market and economic environment?
Special Update: Trade Wars and Market Risk
Trade headlines continue to weigh on markets as new tariffs go into effect. President Trump recently confirmed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, dashing hopes of more extensions or last-minute deals. Additional tariffs are expected in the coming months, including reciprocal ones against countries that impose duties on U.S. goods.