On the morning of Saturday, October 7, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel killing hundreds and plunging the region into further conflict. Israel immediately declared war on Hamas, responded with air strikes, and called up 300,000 army reservists.

As the final quarter of the year begins, markets are grappling with rising interest rates and continued economic uncertainty. These factors led the S&P 500 to decline 3.3% (with reinvested dividends) during the third quarter while the U.S. Aggregate bond index lost 3.2%.

At its September meeting, the Federal Open Markets Committee kept rates unchanged with a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%, in a decision that was widely anticipated by investors. Still, markets responded negatively with bond yields jumping to levels not seen since 2007, the S&P 500 falling a couple percentage points, and tech stocks retreating further from their recent peaks.

For patient investors with time horizons of years and decades, the primary drivers of portfolio returns are not day-to-day market fluctuations but the business cycle and other longer-term trends. One reason that questions around inflation, the Fed, and geopolitics have resulted in market swings is that they shed light on where we might be in the cycle.

A key driver of global markets and inflation over the past two years has been the price of oil. As an important commodity that fuels the economy, investors watch the oil market closely. While oil has fallen considerably from its peak in 2022, it has also rebounded over the last few months. Since mid-June, Brent crude prices have risen over 26%, from around $72 per barrel to above $90. What do long-term investors need to know about energy prices as the inflation story evolves and the market rally continues?