The recent trade announcement between the U.S. and China reverses many of the tariffs that rattled financial markets beginning in April. This agreement, which lasts 90 days, lowers U.S. tariff rates on China from 145% to 30%, and China’s rates on U.S. goods to 10%. Along with tariff pauses on other trading partners, and a newly announced trade deal with the U.K., markets are hopeful that a drawn-out trade war is now off the table. What does this changing market narrative mean for long-term investors?
Investors have faced several market concerns early in the year around tech stocks, interest rates, and government policy. Among these factors, it’s no surprise that trade policy has emerged as particularly significant for markets. President Trump has launched various trade measures, including tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union. How should investors react to these news headlines?
Investors and the financial media tend to focus on macroeconomic concerns such as inflation, labor markets, and the Fed. While these topics are important, history shows that the economy and markets grow over long periods of time due to technological innovation and gains in productivity. It’s for this reason that recent developments in artificial intelligence have captured the attention of investors and economists.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 40,000 for the first time recently as markets continue to rebound from a 5% decline earlier this year. While this has felt like a difficult year for many investors due to inflation, high interest rates, and growth concerns, the reality is that the broad market has achieved 23 new all-time highs. Other asset classes, including international stocks, commodities, and even gold, have surged alongside the U.S. stock market as interest rate expectations have fallen.
With markets nervous about stubborn inflation, a gradually slowing labor market, and the timing of the first Fed rate cut, investors are more focused on this corporate earnings season than usual. This is because while the economy has avoided a “hard landing” corporate earnings only began to rebound in the second half of 2023.
Since the stock market tends to follow the trajectory of earnings in the long run, many investors are hoping for signs that corporate profits will grow sustainably in the coming quarters. What do investors need to know today about how earnings might impact the stock market and economy?
In times of market uncertainty, investors often seek the safety of cash. This has been true over the past several years as markets have swung due to the pandemic, geopolitical events, Fed rate hikes, inflation, gridlock in Washington, technology trends, and more.
More recently, the possibility of worse-than-expected inflation and a delay of the first Fed rate cut have led to renewed investor concerns. At the same time, interest rates on cash are at their highest levels in decades, making it appear that there are attractive “risk-free” returns. What role should cash play in investor portfolios today?
For many households, college decisions are a cause for celebration. However, college also represents one of the largest expenses and sources of financial stress in our lives, on par with retirement or buying a home.
These feelings are only worsened by the current market environment as investors adjust to high interest rates and a less certain path of Fed rate cuts, more stubborn inflation, and stock market volatility. Naturally, these financial concerns can raise questions around college planning and decisions. What long-term perspectives should investors and their families consider as they make these important financial and life decisions?
Rainer Wealth Management
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