The ongoing conflict in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices sharply higher. Both Brent crude and WTI have jumped from around $70 per barrel to around $100 in just a few days, approaching levels last seen in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. This has driven significant uncertainty across global markets, with headlines mentioning a “global economic downturn,” “stagflation,” and more.
After nearly a year of trade policy uncertainty, the Supreme Court's ruling that recent tariffs are unconstitutional has reset the policy landscape. Yet, as is often the case in Washington, when one chapter closes, another opens. President Trump has already signaled a switch to an alternative legal framework for tariffs, and markets are still digesting what this means for trade policy, corporate earnings, consumer spending, and investment portfolios.
The health of the economy is important to long-term investors because it drives their portfolios and their financial plans. Recent economic data points have sent mixed signals, leaving some investors unsure of what to make of the current environment.
For many professionals today, equity compensation is not just a nice perk, but a significant source of wealth accumulation over their careers. Whether through restricted stock units (RSUs), stock options, or other forms of company equity, these awards have become increasingly common across industries and job levels.
Fifteen years ago, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen famously wrote that "software is eating the world." What he meant was that any service that could be written and automated as software, would be. This has proved accurate as cloud computing, software-as-a-service, and digital platforms have reshaped both entire industries and how consumers buy goods and services. As investors, this has important implications and is a major source of recent market volatility.
For many professionals today, equity compensation is not just a nice perk, but a significant source of wealth accumulation over their careers. Whether through restricted stock units (RSUs), stock options, or other forms of company equity, these awards have become increasingly common across industries and job levels.
Fifteen years ago, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen famously wrote that "software is eating the world." What he meant was that any service that could be written and automated as software, would be. This has proved accurate as cloud computing, software-as-a-service, and digital platforms have reshaped both entire industries and how consumers buy goods and services. As investors, this has important implications and is a major source of recent market volatility.
As the corporate earnings season ramps up, markets are shifting their focus from geopolitical concerns to tangible evidence of how businesses are performing. With the stock market hovering near all-time highs, questions around valuations and the sustainability of recent profitability trends have become increasingly important.
The start of the year was positive for stocks and bonds, continuing the rally from recent years. This might be surprising to some investors since there were several periods of volatility driven by geopolitics and Federal Reserve policy. While headlines created short-term swings, including the S&P 500's worst day since last October, markets rebounded quickly. Within days, major indices reached new all-time highs, driven also by healthy corporate earnings that have supported portfolios.
Gold, silver, and other precious metals have rallied over the past two years, capturing investor attention. Gold recently surpassed $4,700 per ounce while silver now trades above $90 per ounce, marking historic milestones for both metals. This strong recent performance may lead some investors to wonder whether they should be investing in these assets. As with all investments, it's important to maintain a broader perspective to understand their history and how they fit into a well-constructed portfolio.
Rainer Wealth Management
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