For many people, the wealth they have accumulated over a lifetime is more than just about money. It represents years of hard work, discipline, and sacrifice to ensure they can have a comfortable retirement, take care of their families, and more. Yet, one of the most important and often overlooked questions in financial planning is not how to grow wealth, or even how to spend it, but how to pass it on efficiently and intentionally. This requires thoughtful estate planning that covers a breadth of financial planning topics including taxes, goals, and the concept of legacy.
The S&P 500 recently surpassed 7,500 for the first time, marking another milestone in a year that has seen many new all-time highs. This is positive for investors, especially because several sectors have contributed to this rally. These trends have also fueled enthusiasm for IPOs, particularly ones related to artificial intelligence, after years of relatively few companies going public.
The Federal Reserve plays a central role in financial markets and the economy, and its importance has only grown in recent decades. From the 2008 global financial crisis to the inflationary period of the past several years, investors have followed every Fed decision carefully. So, when leadership changes occur at the Fed, they naturally capture the attention of investors and the broader public. At the same time, it’s important to understand what the Fed does and does not control when it comes to long-term investing.
For much of the history of the stock market, investing was primarily about individual stocks and bonds. Over the past few decades, however, macroeconomic developments have increasingly influenced markets. Significant events, whether related to central bank policy, geopolitics, or global trade, now affect nearly all stocks across the market, regardless of their individual stories. For investors, this means that building modern portfolios is less about finding attractive stocks, and more about making asset allocation decisions that are aligned with financial goals.
The human brain is excellent at finding patterns, a skill that has evolved to help us across many parts of life. However, it can also lead us astray when there is no real pattern at all, such as when we see shapes in clouds and ink blots. When it comes to investing, this is relevant because some patterns are important, such as the long-term relationship between the market and the economy, while others may be due to pure coincidence. Distinguishing between what makes for interesting trivia versus true investing principles is a challenging but important part of achieving long-term financial success.
The S&P 500 has reached a new all-time high, coming full circle in just two years, despite growing uncertainty around the economy, the path of Fed rate cuts, and rising interest rates. Outside of traditional asset classes, Bitcoin also reached its highest level in two years recently following last year's run up.
The battle over the federal budget in Washington is adding to political uncertainty at a time when investors are already nervous about the economy and financial markets. Lawmakers are running out of time to agree on and approve a new budget after kicking the can down the road twice since last September.
Stock and bond markets struggled during the first trading week of 2024 as investors questioned the probability of a "soft landing" and what it may mean for the timing and size of Fed rate cuts later this year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.5% and 3.2%, respectively, driven by a decline in large cap tech stocks, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.05%.
Rainer Wealth Management
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