Oil prices play an important role in the global economy, directly influencing the cost of gasoline at the pump and indirectly impacting the prices of all goods and services. The price of oil has also been an important factor influencing global markets and inflation trends over the past few years. Historically, the relationship between oil and the economy is a two-way street: low or stable oil prices stimulate the economy, and a growing economy increases the demand for oil, and vice versa.

As we begin the final quarter of the year, financial markets and the economy have defied the expectations of many investors. Rather than falling into recession, the economy has grown steadily, albeit at a slower pace, and inflation rates have fallen toward the Fed’s target. As a result, the macroeconomic environment has shifted to a monetary easing cycle, propelling the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to new all-time highs and boosting bond returns. The first three quarters of the year are a reminder that it’s often best to focus on the longer-term trends rather than events in the rearview mirror.

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated in recent days, raising the risk of a full-scale war and marking another chapter in Middle East instability. These events are unfolding against a backdrop of existing global uncertainty, including the war between Russia and Ukraine, tensions between China and Taiwan, unrest in the South China Sea, disruptions in the Red Sea, and persistent threats from North Korea and Iran. These events are complex, create tragic humanitarian crises, and unfortunately have no simple solutions.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions remain a focal point for markets. While the timing and size of rate cuts are the subject of debate, why the central bank is cutting rates and how the full rate cut cycle might play out are far more important. This is because the implications are not as straightforward as they might seem, and market expectations have shifted dramatically over the past year. What should investors know about how rate cuts have historically impacted the economy and markets?

With less than two months until the presidential election, the policy platforms for President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are gradually forming. Through speeches and debates, each candidate is laying out what they stand for and how they would change existing policies. For investors, perhaps the most scrutinized area is taxes, and there are concerns over how changes to tax rates could impact both Wall Street and Main Street. How can investors maintain perspective as we approach November 5?