The 19th century geologist Charles Lyell popularized the concept of “uniformitarianism,” a long word that reflects the simple idea that the natural forces shaping the earth today are the same ones that have consistently affected it across history. A similar principle applies to commodities we extract from the ground like oil and copper. While there are events like wars, tariffs, and AI impacting commodity prices at the moment, ultimately it’s supply and demand that always drives these markets in the long run.

August was another example of the idea that strong markets do not require a picture-perfect backdrop. While there continues to be uncertainty around oil prices, the Fed, new tariffs affecting global trade, and interest rates that are at their highest in decades, many positive factors drove broad market indices higher.

The Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Romer once wrote that "economic growth springs from better recipes, not just from more cooking."1 This key idea in economics is that raising our standard of living is not just about adding more workers or more equipment, but about enabling each worker to produce not only more goods and services, but higher quality ones as well.

Since new tariffs were announced last year, global trade has been a source of uncertainty for financial markets and the economy. In February, the Supreme Court ruled that the original “Liberation Day” tariffs were illegal, resulting in a wave of refunds to businesses that are now well underway.1 New tariffs have been implemented since then under different laws, including recently with close trading partners such as Canada.

The stock market has climbed to new all-time highs following several periods of uncertainty this year. This is welcome news for investors, especially because many parts of the market have contributed to the rally, including sectors such as Energy, Information Technology, and Industrials. Interest rates are also near multi-decade highs, pushing bond yields to their most attractive levels in years. At the same time, investors should always be prepared for periods of volatility, which the past few years have shown can occur at any time.