A look back at 2017 thus far.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent speech at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference, which has been covered extensively in the media, reinforced that an interest rate cut in September is likely. Powell emphasized that while there is uncertainty around tariffs and inflation, these concerns need to be balanced against supporting the job market. Markets have hovered near all-time highs recently, suggesting that investors agree with the trajectory of Fed policy and have confidence in the economy. What does a potential rate cut mean for long-term investors given the overall outlook?
The challenge facing investors today isn't whether artificial intelligence will transform the economy, but how to maintain portfolio balance as the market climbs to new all-time highs. While it’s tempting to focus exclusively on companies that have performed well recently, investing for long-term goals requires a thoughtful approach to both growth and risk management.
For investors trying to understand the economy, recent reports have provided mixed signals, even leading President Trump to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner. The latest jobs numbers showed weakness and negative revisions, but there are also signs that GDP growth rebounded in the second quarter. Corporate earnings continue to beat expectations, driving markets to new all-time highs, while tariffs and inflation remain concerns.
While investors always look to corporate earnings for clues about how businesses are performing, the current earnings season arguably carries greater importance due to tariffs. Although major stock market indices have reached new all-time highs as trade tensions have stabilized, there is still uncertainty as to how tariffs might affect consumers and businesses. Fortunately, new trade agreements are being announced, and corporations are reporting earnings that are beating expectations.
