A look back at 2017 thus far.
The famous investing principle "don't fight the Fed" was coined in the 1970s but has only grown in significance. The idea is simple: the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions can have important effects on markets and the economy, so investors should consider them carefully. At the same time, perspective is needed to focus on the overall path of interest rates, and not individual Fed decisions. This is relevant today as the Fed continues its rate-cutting cycle amid a complex economic environment.
The late Jack Bogle observed that "successful investing is about owning businesses and reaping the huge rewards provided by the dividends and earnings growth of our nation's—and, for that matter, the world's—corporations." This wisdom is relevant today because the benefit of owning stocks is not just about capturing long-run price returns, but also in the dividends corporations pay to investors as they grow their profits.
“Life affords no greater responsibility, no greater privilege, than the raising of the next generation.” This statement by former United States Surgeon General C. Everett Koop underscores what for many is the ultimate goal: leaving a lasting legacy beyond our own financial security.
The stock market climbed to new all-time highs in August, while bonds also contributed positively to portfolios. This occurred despite continued uncertainty around tariffs, Fed independence, and technology stocks. The month began with U.S. tariffs going into effect against most major trading partners after the initial 90-day pause. A federal appeals court later ruled that the “reciprocal tariffs” are illegal, possibly paving the way for the case to reach the Supreme Court.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent speech at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference, which has been covered extensively in the media, reinforced that an interest rate cut in September is likely. Powell emphasized that while there is uncertainty around tariffs and inflation, these concerns need to be balanced against supporting the job market. Markets have hovered near all-time highs recently, suggesting that investors agree with the trajectory of Fed policy and have confidence in the economy. What does a potential rate cut mean for long-term investors given the overall outlook?
