The case for aligning your portfolio with your outlook & worldview.
The first quarter of 2026 illustrates the importance of preparation when it comes to financial planning and investing. After strong gains in 2025, markets have faced a combination of geopolitical shocks, higher oil prices, and renewed economic uncertainty. The conflict in Iran, which began at the end of February, became the dominant market story, pushing oil prices sharply higher and sparking the first market pullback of the year. However, by the end of March, headlines around a possible ceasefire emerged, and the situation continues to evolve.
For most Americans, the price of gasoline at the pump is one of the direct ways the conflict in Iran affects their everyday lives. Gasoline prices are prominently displayed and updated frequently, and filling up on at least a weekly basis is a basic necessity to commute to work, school, buy groceries, and more. Diesel prices are just as important since they affect the transportation and manufacturing costs of many goods across the economy. This is why these prices serve as key economic indicators, and why the ongoing situation in the Middle East has become a growing concern for consumers and investors.
The ongoing conflict in Iran and rising oil prices have been the primary drivers of stock market swings in recent weeks. Brent crude oil has climbed back above $100 per barrel, raising questions about whether higher energy costs could slow economic growth while also pushing inflation higher. This adds to existing concerns such as the impact of artificial intelligence on existing companies, broad market valuations, private credit, and the path of Federal Reserve policy. For investors, this can naturally create questions about the health of their portfolios.
The ongoing conflict in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices sharply higher. Both Brent crude and WTI have jumped from around $70 per barrel to around $100 in just a few days, approaching levels last seen in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. This has driven significant uncertainty across global markets, with headlines mentioning a “global economic downturn,” “stagflation,” and more.
After nearly a year of trade policy uncertainty, the Supreme Court's ruling that recent tariffs are unconstitutional has reset the policy landscape. Yet, as is often the case in Washington, when one chapter closes, another opens. President Trump has already signaled a switch to an alternative legal framework for tariffs, and markets are still digesting what this means for trade policy, corporate earnings, consumer spending, and investment portfolios.
