For the sixth time in the last seven years, the stock market is on track to deliver double-digit returns. This remarkable streak, interrupted only by the 2022 inflation-driven downturn, has left many investors in a positive financial position.
In November, markets experienced a brief period of volatility that affected many asset classes. While major indices have delivered strong year-to-date returns across stocks, bonds, and international investments, investors continue to worry about artificial intelligence-related stocks and the path of Fed rate cuts. At the same time, the government shutdown delayed the publication of key economic reports, making it more difficult to judge how the economy is doing.
A quote often attributed to Winston Churchill is that "it is more agreeable to have the power to give than to receive." The holiday season is a natural time to reflect on charitable giving and the role it can play as part of a comprehensive financial plan. Thoughtful charitable planning can not only support philanthropic goals, but increase tax efficiency as well. The question isn't just whether to give, but how to give in ways that maximize both the impact on causes you care about and the benefits to your overall financial plan.
As the holiday season begins, it’s the perfect time to pause and appreciate what we have, both in our personal and financial lives. This is particularly important since investors tend to focus on what could go wrong rather than what has gone right. At the moment, with markets performing well, it’s helpful to reflect on the past year to gain perspective as new challenges and opportunities emerge.
The stock market continued its strong performance in October despite uncertainty from a government shutdown and renewed trade tensions with China early in the month. Many major indices reached new all-time highs after recovering from a brief period of volatility. Bonds also contributed positively to portfolios as interest rates declined, fueled partly by the Federal Reserve's second consecutive rate cut.
For patient investors with time horizons of years and decades, the primary drivers of portfolio returns are not day-to-day market fluctuations but the business cycle and other longer-term trends. One reason that questions around inflation, the Fed, and geopolitics have resulted in market swings is that they shed light on where we might be in the cycle.
A key driver of global markets and inflation over the past two years has been the price of oil. As an important commodity that fuels the economy, investors watch the oil market closely. While oil has fallen considerably from its peak in 2022, it has also rebounded over the last few months. Since mid-June, Brent crude prices have risen over 26%, from around $72 per barrel to above $90. What do long-term investors need to know about energy prices as the inflation story evolves and the market rally continues?
For long-term investors, knowing the difference between what can and cannot be controlled is the key to both financial success and peace of mind. While all investors would like to believe they can predict or even control the direction of the market, experience teaches us that this is difficult to do.
Rainer Wealth Management
390 Diablo Road, Suite 202 | Danville, Ca 94526 | (925) 217-4280
